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Research	
  needs	
  for	
  the	
  
advancement	
  of	
  integrated	
  crop-­‐
livestock-­‐tree	
  systems	
  
Henry	
  Neufeldt	
  
World	
  Agroforestry	
  Centre	
  (ICRAF)	
  
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
Nutritional content of global
cereal supply has declined as
production has increased
since 1960.
DeFries et al. Science 2015;349:238-240
Published by AAAS
Intensifica<on	
  has	
  spared	
  18	
  to	
  
27	
  million	
  hectares	
  that	
  would	
  
have	
  been	
  required	
  to	
  produce	
  
the	
  same	
  amount	
  of	
  cereals	
  
with	
  yields	
  equivalent	
  to	
  those	
  
in	
  the	
  mid-­‐1960s.	
  
But	
  intensifica<on	
  can	
  
exacerbate	
  land-­‐clearing	
  in	
  the	
  
absence	
  of	
  appropriate	
  policies	
  
and	
  enforcement.	
  Moreover,	
  
intensifica<on	
  relies	
  on	
  high	
  
inputs	
  of	
  energy,	
  fer<lizer,	
  
pes<cides,	
  and	
  water.	
  
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
Years
RealGDPgrowth(%)
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
VariabilityinRainfall(Meter)
Real GDPgrow th (%)
Variability in Rainfall (Meter)
Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe
Correla8on	
  between	
  GDP	
  and	
  rainfall	
  in	
  Zimbabwe	
  
•  Farmers	
  most	
  interested	
  in	
  reducing	
  food	
  insecurity	
  
•  No	
  long-­‐	
  or	
  medium-­‐term	
  planning	
  possible	
  under	
  food	
  insecure	
  situa<on	
  
•  Tree	
  plan<ng	
  (and	
  other	
  investments	
  in	
  livelihood	
  improvements)	
  only	
  
aTer	
  basic	
  food	
  security	
  is	
  guaranteed	
  
•  Food	
  insecurity	
  rose	
  by	
  at	
  least	
  one	
  month	
  (above	
  on	
  average	
  3	
  months)	
  
during	
  drought	
  and	
  flooding	
  
•  Coping	
  strategies	
  lead	
  into	
  ‘poverty	
  trap’	
  
•  Agroforestry	
  reduced	
  food	
  insecurity	
  by	
  about	
  1	
  month	
  
All	
  #s	
  in	
  %	
  
Reduce	
  
Quan<ty,	
  
Quality	
  or	
  #	
  
of	
  meals	
  
Comm-­‐
unity	
  or	
  
family	
  
support	
  
Help	
  from	
  
Gov,	
  NGO,	
  
Church	
  
Borrow	
  
money	
  
Casual	
  
Labor	
  
Sell	
  
possess-­‐
ions	
  or	
  
livestock	
  
Consume	
  
Seeds	
  
Children	
  
a^end	
  
school	
  
less	
  
Lower	
  
Nyando	
  
85	
   30	
   42	
   32	
   28	
   72	
   72	
   38	
  
Middle	
  
Nyando	
  
38	
   23	
   18	
   37.5	
   25	
   40	
   61	
   12.5	
  
Farmer	
  climate	
  coping	
  strategies	
  
Thorlakson	
  and	
  Neufeldt	
  2012	
  
Climate	
  change	
  impacts	
  on	
  yields	
  
2°C
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2010 2040 2070 2100
shareofworldGDP
3°C
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2010 2040 2070 2100
shareofworldGDP
Extra costs without adaptation
Adaptation costs
Mitigation costs
Residual damages
Baseline
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2010 2040 2070 2100
shareofworldGDP
Globally,	
  residual	
  damages	
  can	
  be	
  limited	
  with	
  2	
  
degrees	
  and	
  adapta<on	
  
(Source:	
  Hof	
  et	
  al.,	
  2010)	
  
Photos: Yann Arthus-Bertrand
Humanity’s
provisioning at the
land
water
energy nexus
and
“safe(r) space”
What	
  will	
  we	
  call	
  the	
  boundaries	
  of	
  	
  
Safe(r)	
  opera8ng	
  spaces	
  for	
  the	
  food	
  systems?	
  
Beddington	
  et	
  al,	
  2012.	
  Science	
  And	
  how	
  will	
  we	
  nest	
  scales	
  effec<vely	
  and	
  efficiently?	
  
Short	
  term	
   Long	
  term	
  
Food	
  security	
  
Mi<ga<on	
  Adapta<on	
  
Small	
  
scales	
  
Large	
  
scales	
  
Climate-­‐smart	
  agriculture	
  
Efficiency	
  
Fairness	
  
Food	
  Systems	
  
Presenter	
   ICLT	
  systems/	
  
prac8ces	
  
Labor	
  
demand	
  
Land	
  area	
  
available	
  
Degree	
  of	
  
mechaniza8on	
  
Scalability?	
  
Luis	
  Alvarez	
  
Welchez	
  
Sistema	
  Quesungual	
   High	
   Low	
   Low	
   Low?	
  
Tilahun	
  
Amede	
  
CLS	
  in	
  SSA	
  
Rainwater	
  management	
  
Micro	
  dosing	
  
High	
  
High	
  
High	
  
Medium	
  
Low	
  
L	
  to	
  H	
  
Low	
  
Low	
  to	
  high	
  
Low	
  	
  
Medium?	
  
High	
  
High	
  
Paulo	
  
Herrmann	
  
iLPF	
  (ICLF)	
  in	
  Brazil	
   Low	
   High	
   High	
   High	
  
Muhammad	
  
Ibrahim	
  
Live	
  fences	
  
Mul<strata	
  systems	
  
Silvopastoral	
  systems	
  
Medium	
  
High	
  
High	
  
Low	
  
Low	
  
Medium	
  
Low	
  
Low	
  
Low	
  
Medium	
  
Low	
  
Medium?	
  
Paul	
  Burges	
   Dehasa	
  
Montado	
  
Bocage	
  
Wood	
  pastures	
  
Intercropping	
  
Grazed	
  orchards	
  
Alley	
  cropping	
  
Medium	
  
Medium	
  
Medium	
  
Medium	
  
Low	
  
Medium	
  
Low	
  
Medium	
  
Medium	
  
Medium	
  
Medium	
  
High	
  
Medium	
  
High	
  
Medium	
  
Medium	
  
Medium	
  
Medium	
  
High	
  
Medium	
  
High	
  
Medium	
  
Medium	
  
Medium	
  
Medium	
  
Medium?	
  
Medium	
  
High	
  
Sustainability Challenges – Land Use
Food vs. Fuel
Pastoral Land Use
Biodiversity
Watershed
Land Use – Socioeconomic & Environmental Sustainability
Innova8on	
  and	
  food	
  security	
  
Rela<onship	
  between	
  
innova<veness	
  (number	
  
of	
  farming	
  system	
  
changes)	
  and	
  household	
  
food	
  security	
  (number	
  
of	
  food	
  deficit	
  months).	
  
Error	
  bars	
  indicate	
  the	
  
95%	
  confidence	
  interval	
  
of	
  the	
  mean	
  
	
  
Kristjanson	
  et	
  al	
  2012	
  
Financial	
  benefits	
  of	
  no-­‐<ll	
  wheat	
  
produc<on	
  in	
  northern	
  Kasakhstan	
  
Derpsch	
  et	
  al	
  2010	
  
 
Researching,	
  learning,	
  impac8ng	
  together!	
  
hQps://www.linkedin.com/groups?mostRecent=&trk=&gid=6657402	
  
	
  
hQp://ccsl.wikispaces.com/Sandbox	
  
h^p://thedata.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/CCAFSbaseline/faces/
StudyLis<ngPage.xhtml;jsessionid=efc0985167adbf520e185e5a39b1?mode=1&collec<onId=4844	
  
Effects	
  of	
  tenure	
  on	
  land	
  management	
  
Constraints:	
  insecure	
  tenure	
  
Economic,	
  Environmental	
  and	
  Social	
  
Impacts	
  
Unadjud	
   Freehold	
  
Tenure	
  
Effect	
  
Net	
  returns	
  to	
  land	
  ($	
  ha-­‐1
	
  y-­‐1
)	
   $126	
   $288	
   2.28	
  
Woody	
  crops,	
  woodlots	
  etc	
  (ha	
  km-­‐2
)	
   5.4	
   25.6	
   4.7	
  
Hedgerows	
  (km	
  km-­‐2
)	
   5.2	
   23.6	
   4.5	
  
Social	
  cost	
  from	
  embedding	
   -­‐$40	
   $30	
   $70	
  
Social	
  "tax"	
   -­‐32%	
   +10%	
   	
  
	
   Norton-­‐Griffiths	
  2012	
  
Priority	
  Ac8ons:	
  	
  
v  Improve	
   networking	
   and	
   partnership	
  
building	
   for	
   climate	
   adapta<on	
   along	
  
the	
   value	
   chain	
   by	
   strengthening	
  
exis<ng	
   plaoorms	
   at	
   all	
   levels	
   and	
  
explore	
  the	
  role	
  of	
  market	
  incen<ves	
  in	
  
suppor<ng	
  such	
  ac<vi<es,	
  
v  Develop	
   new,	
   flexible	
   financial	
  
products	
   to	
   support	
   climate-­‐resilient	
  
and	
   inclusive	
   agro-­‐value	
   chains	
  
through	
   capacity	
   building	
   and	
  
innova<ve	
  public-­‐private	
  partnerships,	
  
v  I n v e s t	
   i n	
   c l i m a t e -­‐ r e s i l i e n t	
  
infrastructures	
  such	
  as	
  roads,	
  irriga<on	
  
systems,	
   storage	
   facili<es	
   and	
  	
  
telecommunica<ons	
   should	
   remain	
   a	
  
top	
  priority	
  to	
  support	
  agro-­‐value	
  chain	
  
development	
   and	
   build	
   produc<ve	
  
capaci<es	
  in	
  a	
  changing	
  climate.	
  
CRCV	
  ini<a<ve	
  	
  
Value	
  chains:	
  a	
  case	
  of	
  climate-­‐resilient	
  coffee	
  (2)	
  
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
Global	
  market	
  forces	
  
Chesterman	
  and	
  Neely,	
  2015	
  
–  Moving	
  from	
  sex	
  disaggregated	
  
diagnos<c	
  research	
  towards	
  
informing,	
  catalyzing	
  and	
  targe<ng	
  
adapta<on	
  and	
  mi<ga<on	
  solu<ons	
  
to	
  women	
  	
  
–  Finding:	
  	
  Gender	
  norms	
  must	
  be	
  
addressed	
  to	
  achieve	
  the	
  UN	
  
Sustainable	
  Development	
  Goals	
  
Gender	
  and	
  inclusion	
  for	
  resilience	
  
•  Can	
  we	
  predict	
  what	
  makes	
  integrated	
  crop-­‐livestock-­‐tree	
  systems	
  scalable?	
  
•  How	
  can	
  we	
  incen<vize	
  the	
  adop<on	
  of	
  ICLTS	
  through	
  horizontal	
  and	
  ver<cal	
  scaling?	
  
•  What	
  are	
  the	
  metrics	
  we	
  need	
  to	
  characterize	
  system	
  proper<es	
  at	
  appropriate	
  scales?	
  
•  How	
  can	
  we	
  support	
  decision-­‐makers	
  (at	
  all	
  relevant	
  scales)	
  in	
  making	
  be^er	
  decisions?	
  
Evergreen	
  agriculture	
  
with	
  	
  
Faidherbia	
  albida	
  
Sendzimir	
  et	
  al	
  2011	
  
GHG	
  mi<ga<on	
  through	
  agroforestry	
  by	
  regions	
  
Region	
   Annual	
  rate	
   2000-­‐2010	
  2011-­‐2030	
  
(Mt	
  CO2/yr)	
   (Mt	
  CO2)	
   (Mt	
  CO2)	
  
North	
  America	
   24.6	
   270	
   491	
  
Central	
  America	
   10.1	
   111	
   201	
  
South	
  America	
   157.3	
   1,730	
   3,145	
  
Europe	
   7.2	
   79	
   144	
  
N	
  Africa	
  +	
  W	
  Asia	
   2.7	
   29	
   53	
  
Sub-­‐Saharan	
  Africa	
   10.0	
   110	
   201	
  
N	
  +	
  Central	
  Asia	
   -­‐4.0	
   -­‐44	
   -­‐79	
  
South	
  Asia	
   23.5	
   258	
   469	
  
South-­‐East	
  Asia	
   23.8	
   262	
   477	
  
East	
  Asia	
   36.2	
   398	
   723	
  
Oceania	
   19.2	
   211	
   384	
  
Globe	
   262.8	
   2,891	
   5,256	
  
%	
   Gt	
  CO2/yr	
  
0	
   0.26	
  
20	
   0.37	
  
25	
   0.39	
  
30	
   0.41	
  
50	
   0.47	
  
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
"The	
  landscape	
  approach	
  has	
  
been	
  championed	
  by	
  
organiza<ons	
  ac<ve	
  in	
  the	
  
development	
  and	
  conserva<on	
  
sectors	
  for	
  many	
  years,	
  though	
  
the	
  concept	
  has	
  been	
  slow	
  to	
  
migrate	
  into	
  mainstream	
  
corporate	
  thinking.	
  Now	
  this	
  
report	
  from	
  the	
  Landscape	
  for	
  
People,	
  Food	
  and	
  Nature	
  
Ini<a<ve,	
  sets	
  out	
  a	
  case	
  for	
  
companies	
  to	
  think	
  about	
  their	
  
business	
  in	
  landscape	
  terms."	
  	
  
	
  
-­‐	
  José	
  Lopez,	
  Execu?ve	
  Vice	
  
President,	
  Opera?ons,	
  Nestlé	
  S.A.	
  
	
  
Connec<ng	
  commodi<es	
  to	
  landscapes	
  through	
  public-­‐private-­‐civic	
  partnerships	
  
SBSTA	
  40,	
  6	
  June	
  2014	
  
Gabrielle Kissinger
Lexeme Consulting
Agribusinesses	
  and	
  food	
  sector	
  response	
  to	
  
sustainability	
  risks	
  from	
  field	
  to	
  landscape	
  
Connec<ng	
  commodi<es	
  to	
  landscapes	
  through	
  public-­‐private-­‐civic	
  partnerships	
  
SBSTA	
  40,	
  6	
  June	
  2014	
  
Gabrielle Kissinger
Lexeme Consulting
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
The$Guardian$
www.getreal.com,
Photo:	
  Guardian	
  
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
INSTITUTIONAL	
  
CAPACITY	
  
AGROECOSYSTEM	
  
ASSETS	
  
Mi<ga<on	
  
Economic	
  
changes	
  
Buffer	
  filter	
  	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Abundant	
  
	
  
	
  
Limited	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Fragile	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Robust	
  
Strong	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Weak	
  
	
  
External	
  
drivers,	
  	
  
hasards	
  and	
  
exposure	
  
PATHWAY	
  
Time	
  1	
  à	
  Time	
  2	
  
SCENARIOS	
  
A.	
  Different	
  driver	
  
B.	
  Same	
  asset	
  
Less	
  
vulnerable	
  
More	
  
vulnerable	
  
UNCERTAINTY	
  
CLOUD	
  
Indicator	
  
-­‐	
  AE	
  1	
  
-­‐	
  AE2	
  
-­‐	
  AE3	
  
-­‐	
  …	
  
-­‐	
  AEN	
  
Indicator	
  
-­‐	
  A1	
  
-­‐	
  A2	
  
-­‐	
  A3	
  
-­‐	
  A4	
  	
  
-­‐	
  …	
  
-­‐	
  AN	
  
Indicator	
  
-­‐	
  I1	
  	
  
-­‐	
  I2	
  
-­‐	
  I3	
  
-­‐	
  …	
  
-­‐	
  IN	
  
Reduced	
  Risk	
  
Increased	
  Risk	
  
Based	
  on	
  	
  
Fraser	
  et	
  al,	
  2011	
  
Agreement	
  on	
  
goals/values	
  
No	
  agreement	
  
on	
  goals/values	
  
High	
  uncertainty	
  
Low	
  uncertainty	
  
The	
  role	
  of	
  science	
  and	
  
research	
  in	
  complex	
  
systems	
  
Straighoorward	
  
design	
  
Providing	
  
arguments	
  
Monitor	
  
emerging	
  change	
  
Collabora<ve	
  
ac<on	
  research	
  
Study	
  diversity	
  
Experiment	
  with	
  
mul<ple	
  op<ons	
  
Extracted	
  from	
  Leeuwis,	
  2014	
  
Complex	
  systems	
  thinking	
  
Discovery,	
  tes<ng	
  and	
  implementa<on	
  of	
  mechanisms	
  across	
  scales	
  that	
  allow	
  
for	
  adap<ve	
  management	
  and	
  adap<ve	
  governance	
  of	
  social-­‐ecological	
  
systems	
  essen<al	
  for	
  long-­‐term	
  human	
  provisioning	
  
	
  
Development	
  of	
  integrated	
  metrics	
  of	
  safe	
  space	
  that	
  are	
  prac<cal	
  and	
  
meaningful	
  for	
  decision-­‐making	
  by	
  relevant	
  communi<es	
  in	
  near	
  real	
  <me	
  
	
  
Systema<c	
  gathering	
  and	
  integra<on	
  of	
  quality	
  data	
  and	
  informa<on	
  to	
  
generate	
  knowledge	
  in	
  <me	
  frames	
  and	
  at	
  scales	
  relevant	
  for	
  decision-­‐making	
  
through	
  analy<cal	
  tools,	
  models	
  and	
  scenarios	
  
	
  
Establishment	
  of	
  legi<mate	
  and	
  empowered	
  science	
  policy	
  dialogues	
  that	
  
frame	
  post–disciplinary	
  science	
  agendas	
  on	
  local,	
  na<onal	
  and	
  interna<onal	
  
scales	
  
Key	
  areas	
  of	
  science	
  innova<on	
  
Neufeldt	
  et	
  al	
  2013,	
  Agriculture	
  and	
  Food	
  Security	
  
Research	
  for	
  the	
  
advancement	
  of	
  integrated	
  
crop-­‐livestock-­‐tree	
  systems	
  
will	
  need	
  to	
  become	
  more	
  
integrated,	
  post-­‐disciplinary	
  
and	
  systems	
  oriented	
  
Thanks	
  for	
  a	
  future	
  

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Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses

  • 1. Research  needs  for  the   advancement  of  integrated  crop-­‐ livestock-­‐tree  systems   Henry  Neufeldt   World  Agroforestry  Centre  (ICRAF)  
  • 5. Nutritional content of global cereal supply has declined as production has increased since 1960. DeFries et al. Science 2015;349:238-240 Published by AAAS Intensifica<on  has  spared  18  to   27  million  hectares  that  would   have  been  required  to  produce   the  same  amount  of  cereals   with  yields  equivalent  to  those   in  the  mid-­‐1960s.   But  intensifica<on  can   exacerbate  land-­‐clearing  in  the   absence  of  appropriate  policies   and  enforcement.  Moreover,   intensifica<on  relies  on  high   inputs  of  energy,  fer<lizer,   pes<cides,  and  water.  
  • 6. -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Years RealGDPgrowth(%) -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 VariabilityinRainfall(Meter) Real GDPgrow th (%) Variability in Rainfall (Meter) Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe Correla8on  between  GDP  and  rainfall  in  Zimbabwe  
  • 7. •  Farmers  most  interested  in  reducing  food  insecurity   •  No  long-­‐  or  medium-­‐term  planning  possible  under  food  insecure  situa<on   •  Tree  plan<ng  (and  other  investments  in  livelihood  improvements)  only   aTer  basic  food  security  is  guaranteed   •  Food  insecurity  rose  by  at  least  one  month  (above  on  average  3  months)   during  drought  and  flooding   •  Coping  strategies  lead  into  ‘poverty  trap’   •  Agroforestry  reduced  food  insecurity  by  about  1  month   All  #s  in  %   Reduce   Quan<ty,   Quality  or  #   of  meals   Comm-­‐ unity  or   family   support   Help  from   Gov,  NGO,   Church   Borrow   money   Casual   Labor   Sell   possess-­‐ ions  or   livestock   Consume   Seeds   Children   a^end   school   less   Lower   Nyando   85   30   42   32   28   72   72   38   Middle   Nyando   38   23   18   37.5   25   40   61   12.5   Farmer  climate  coping  strategies   Thorlakson  and  Neufeldt  2012  
  • 8. Climate  change  impacts  on  yields  
  • 9. 2°C 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2010 2040 2070 2100 shareofworldGDP 3°C 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2010 2040 2070 2100 shareofworldGDP Extra costs without adaptation Adaptation costs Mitigation costs Residual damages Baseline 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2010 2040 2070 2100 shareofworldGDP Globally,  residual  damages  can  be  limited  with  2   degrees  and  adapta<on   (Source:  Hof  et  al.,  2010)  
  • 10. Photos: Yann Arthus-Bertrand Humanity’s provisioning at the land water energy nexus and “safe(r) space”
  • 11. What  will  we  call  the  boundaries  of     Safe(r)  opera8ng  spaces  for  the  food  systems?   Beddington  et  al,  2012.  Science  And  how  will  we  nest  scales  effec<vely  and  efficiently?  
  • 12. Short  term   Long  term   Food  security   Mi<ga<on  Adapta<on   Small   scales   Large   scales   Climate-­‐smart  agriculture   Efficiency   Fairness   Food  Systems  
  • 13. Presenter   ICLT  systems/   prac8ces   Labor   demand   Land  area   available   Degree  of   mechaniza8on   Scalability?   Luis  Alvarez   Welchez   Sistema  Quesungual   High   Low   Low   Low?   Tilahun   Amede   CLS  in  SSA   Rainwater  management   Micro  dosing   High   High   High   Medium   Low   L  to  H   Low   Low  to  high   Low     Medium?   High   High   Paulo   Herrmann   iLPF  (ICLF)  in  Brazil   Low   High   High   High   Muhammad   Ibrahim   Live  fences   Mul<strata  systems   Silvopastoral  systems   Medium   High   High   Low   Low   Medium   Low   Low   Low   Medium   Low   Medium?   Paul  Burges   Dehasa   Montado   Bocage   Wood  pastures   Intercropping   Grazed  orchards   Alley  cropping   Medium   Medium   Medium   Medium   Low   Medium   Low   Medium   Medium   Medium   Medium   High   Medium   High   Medium   Medium   Medium   Medium   High   Medium   High   Medium   Medium   Medium   Medium   Medium?   Medium   High  
  • 14. Sustainability Challenges – Land Use Food vs. Fuel Pastoral Land Use Biodiversity Watershed Land Use – Socioeconomic & Environmental Sustainability
  • 15. Innova8on  and  food  security   Rela<onship  between   innova<veness  (number   of  farming  system   changes)  and  household   food  security  (number   of  food  deficit  months).   Error  bars  indicate  the   95%  confidence  interval   of  the  mean     Kristjanson  et  al  2012  
  • 16. Financial  benefits  of  no-­‐<ll  wheat   produc<on  in  northern  Kasakhstan   Derpsch  et  al  2010  
  • 17.   Researching,  learning,  impac8ng  together!   hQps://www.linkedin.com/groups?mostRecent=&trk=&gid=6657402     hQp://ccsl.wikispaces.com/Sandbox   h^p://thedata.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/CCAFSbaseline/faces/ StudyLis<ngPage.xhtml;jsessionid=efc0985167adbf520e185e5a39b1?mode=1&collec<onId=4844  
  • 18. Effects  of  tenure  on  land  management  
  • 19. Constraints:  insecure  tenure   Economic,  Environmental  and  Social   Impacts   Unadjud   Freehold   Tenure   Effect   Net  returns  to  land  ($  ha-­‐1  y-­‐1 )   $126   $288   2.28   Woody  crops,  woodlots  etc  (ha  km-­‐2 )   5.4   25.6   4.7   Hedgerows  (km  km-­‐2 )   5.2   23.6   4.5   Social  cost  from  embedding   -­‐$40   $30   $70   Social  "tax"   -­‐32%   +10%       Norton-­‐Griffiths  2012  
  • 20. Priority  Ac8ons:     v  Improve   networking   and   partnership   building   for   climate   adapta<on   along   the   value   chain   by   strengthening   exis<ng   plaoorms   at   all   levels   and   explore  the  role  of  market  incen<ves  in   suppor<ng  such  ac<vi<es,   v  Develop   new,   flexible   financial   products   to   support   climate-­‐resilient   and   inclusive   agro-­‐value   chains   through   capacity   building   and   innova<ve  public-­‐private  partnerships,   v  I n v e s t   i n   c l i m a t e -­‐ r e s i l i e n t   infrastructures  such  as  roads,  irriga<on   systems,   storage   facili<es   and     telecommunica<ons   should   remain   a   top  priority  to  support  agro-­‐value  chain   development   and   build   produc<ve   capaci<es  in  a  changing  climate.   CRCV  ini<a<ve     Value  chains:  a  case  of  climate-­‐resilient  coffee  (2)  
  • 25. –  Moving  from  sex  disaggregated   diagnos<c  research  towards   informing,  catalyzing  and  targe<ng   adapta<on  and  mi<ga<on  solu<ons   to  women     –  Finding:    Gender  norms  must  be   addressed  to  achieve  the  UN   Sustainable  Development  Goals   Gender  and  inclusion  for  resilience  
  • 26. •  Can  we  predict  what  makes  integrated  crop-­‐livestock-­‐tree  systems  scalable?   •  How  can  we  incen<vize  the  adop<on  of  ICLTS  through  horizontal  and  ver<cal  scaling?   •  What  are  the  metrics  we  need  to  characterize  system  proper<es  at  appropriate  scales?   •  How  can  we  support  decision-­‐makers  (at  all  relevant  scales)  in  making  be^er  decisions?  
  • 27. Evergreen  agriculture   with     Faidherbia  albida  
  • 28. Sendzimir  et  al  2011  
  • 29. GHG  mi<ga<on  through  agroforestry  by  regions   Region   Annual  rate   2000-­‐2010  2011-­‐2030   (Mt  CO2/yr)   (Mt  CO2)   (Mt  CO2)   North  America   24.6   270   491   Central  America   10.1   111   201   South  America   157.3   1,730   3,145   Europe   7.2   79   144   N  Africa  +  W  Asia   2.7   29   53   Sub-­‐Saharan  Africa   10.0   110   201   N  +  Central  Asia   -­‐4.0   -­‐44   -­‐79   South  Asia   23.5   258   469   South-­‐East  Asia   23.8   262   477   East  Asia   36.2   398   723   Oceania   19.2   211   384   Globe   262.8   2,891   5,256   %   Gt  CO2/yr   0   0.26   20   0.37   25   0.39   30   0.41   50   0.47  
  • 35. "The  landscape  approach  has   been  championed  by   organiza<ons  ac<ve  in  the   development  and  conserva<on   sectors  for  many  years,  though   the  concept  has  been  slow  to   migrate  into  mainstream   corporate  thinking.  Now  this   report  from  the  Landscape  for   People,  Food  and  Nature   Ini<a<ve,  sets  out  a  case  for   companies  to  think  about  their   business  in  landscape  terms."       -­‐  José  Lopez,  Execu?ve  Vice   President,  Opera?ons,  Nestlé  S.A.     Connec<ng  commodi<es  to  landscapes  through  public-­‐private-­‐civic  partnerships   SBSTA  40,  6  June  2014   Gabrielle Kissinger Lexeme Consulting
  • 36. Agribusinesses  and  food  sector  response  to   sustainability  risks  from  field  to  landscape   Connec<ng  commodi<es  to  landscapes  through  public-­‐private-­‐civic  partnerships   SBSTA  40,  6  June  2014   Gabrielle Kissinger Lexeme Consulting
  • 44. INSTITUTIONAL   CAPACITY   AGROECOSYSTEM   ASSETS   Mi<ga<on   Economic   changes   Buffer  filter                              Abundant       Limited         Fragile                                                          Robust   Strong                 Weak     External   drivers,     hasards  and   exposure   PATHWAY   Time  1  à  Time  2   SCENARIOS   A.  Different  driver   B.  Same  asset   Less   vulnerable   More   vulnerable   UNCERTAINTY   CLOUD   Indicator   -­‐  AE  1   -­‐  AE2   -­‐  AE3   -­‐  …   -­‐  AEN   Indicator   -­‐  A1   -­‐  A2   -­‐  A3   -­‐  A4     -­‐  …   -­‐  AN   Indicator   -­‐  I1     -­‐  I2   -­‐  I3   -­‐  …   -­‐  IN   Reduced  Risk   Increased  Risk   Based  on     Fraser  et  al,  2011  
  • 45. Agreement  on   goals/values   No  agreement   on  goals/values   High  uncertainty   Low  uncertainty   The  role  of  science  and   research  in  complex   systems   Straighoorward   design   Providing   arguments   Monitor   emerging  change   Collabora<ve   ac<on  research   Study  diversity   Experiment  with   mul<ple  op<ons   Extracted  from  Leeuwis,  2014   Complex  systems  thinking  
  • 46. Discovery,  tes<ng  and  implementa<on  of  mechanisms  across  scales  that  allow   for  adap<ve  management  and  adap<ve  governance  of  social-­‐ecological   systems  essen<al  for  long-­‐term  human  provisioning     Development  of  integrated  metrics  of  safe  space  that  are  prac<cal  and   meaningful  for  decision-­‐making  by  relevant  communi<es  in  near  real  <me     Systema<c  gathering  and  integra<on  of  quality  data  and  informa<on  to   generate  knowledge  in  <me  frames  and  at  scales  relevant  for  decision-­‐making   through  analy<cal  tools,  models  and  scenarios     Establishment  of  legi<mate  and  empowered  science  policy  dialogues  that   frame  post–disciplinary  science  agendas  on  local,  na<onal  and  interna<onal   scales   Key  areas  of  science  innova<on   Neufeldt  et  al  2013,  Agriculture  and  Food  Security  
  • 47. Research  for  the   advancement  of  integrated   crop-­‐livestock-­‐tree  systems   will  need  to  become  more   integrated,  post-­‐disciplinary   and  systems  oriented  
  • 48. Thanks  for  a  future