Presentation by Henry Neufeldt at the World Congress on Integrated Crop-Livestock-Forest Systems, 3rd international symposium on integrated crop-livestock systems. Brazil, July 2015
Item 6. Revision and consolidation of energy-related legal instruments
Research needs for the advancement of integrated crop-livestock-tree uses
1. Research
needs
for
the
advancement
of
integrated
crop-‐
livestock-‐tree
systems
Henry
Neufeldt
World
Agroforestry
Centre
(ICRAF)
5. Nutritional content of global
cereal supply has declined as
production has increased
since 1960.
DeFries et al. Science 2015;349:238-240
Published by AAAS
Intensifica<on
has
spared
18
to
27
million
hectares
that
would
have
been
required
to
produce
the
same
amount
of
cereals
with
yields
equivalent
to
those
in
the
mid-‐1960s.
But
intensifica<on
can
exacerbate
land-‐clearing
in
the
absence
of
appropriate
policies
and
enforcement.
Moreover,
intensifica<on
relies
on
high
inputs
of
energy,
fer<lizer,
pes<cides,
and
water.
7. • Farmers
most
interested
in
reducing
food
insecurity
• No
long-‐
or
medium-‐term
planning
possible
under
food
insecure
situa<on
• Tree
plan<ng
(and
other
investments
in
livelihood
improvements)
only
aTer
basic
food
security
is
guaranteed
• Food
insecurity
rose
by
at
least
one
month
(above
on
average
3
months)
during
drought
and
flooding
• Coping
strategies
lead
into
‘poverty
trap’
• Agroforestry
reduced
food
insecurity
by
about
1
month
All
#s
in
%
Reduce
Quan<ty,
Quality
or
#
of
meals
Comm-‐
unity
or
family
support
Help
from
Gov,
NGO,
Church
Borrow
money
Casual
Labor
Sell
possess-‐
ions
or
livestock
Consume
Seeds
Children
a^end
school
less
Lower
Nyando
85
30
42
32
28
72
72
38
Middle
Nyando
38
23
18
37.5
25
40
61
12.5
Farmer
climate
coping
strategies
Thorlakson
and
Neufeldt
2012
11. What
will
we
call
the
boundaries
of
Safe(r)
opera8ng
spaces
for
the
food
systems?
Beddington
et
al,
2012.
Science
And
how
will
we
nest
scales
effec<vely
and
efficiently?
12. Short
term
Long
term
Food
security
Mi<ga<on
Adapta<on
Small
scales
Large
scales
Climate-‐smart
agriculture
Efficiency
Fairness
Food
Systems
13. Presenter
ICLT
systems/
prac8ces
Labor
demand
Land
area
available
Degree
of
mechaniza8on
Scalability?
Luis
Alvarez
Welchez
Sistema
Quesungual
High
Low
Low
Low?
Tilahun
Amede
CLS
in
SSA
Rainwater
management
Micro
dosing
High
High
High
Medium
Low
L
to
H
Low
Low
to
high
Low
Medium?
High
High
Paulo
Herrmann
iLPF
(ICLF)
in
Brazil
Low
High
High
High
Muhammad
Ibrahim
Live
fences
Mul<strata
systems
Silvopastoral
systems
Medium
High
High
Low
Low
Medium
Low
Low
Low
Medium
Low
Medium?
Paul
Burges
Dehasa
Montado
Bocage
Wood
pastures
Intercropping
Grazed
orchards
Alley
cropping
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Low
Medium
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
Medium
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
Medium
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium?
Medium
High
14. Sustainability Challenges – Land Use
Food vs. Fuel
Pastoral Land Use
Biodiversity
Watershed
Land Use – Socioeconomic & Environmental Sustainability
15. Innova8on
and
food
security
Rela<onship
between
innova<veness
(number
of
farming
system
changes)
and
household
food
security
(number
of
food
deficit
months).
Error
bars
indicate
the
95%
confidence
interval
of
the
mean
Kristjanson
et
al
2012
16. Financial
benefits
of
no-‐<ll
wheat
produc<on
in
northern
Kasakhstan
Derpsch
et
al
2010
19. Constraints:
insecure
tenure
Economic,
Environmental
and
Social
Impacts
Unadjud
Freehold
Tenure
Effect
Net
returns
to
land
($
ha-‐1
y-‐1
)
$126
$288
2.28
Woody
crops,
woodlots
etc
(ha
km-‐2
)
5.4
25.6
4.7
Hedgerows
(km
km-‐2
)
5.2
23.6
4.5
Social
cost
from
embedding
-‐$40
$30
$70
Social
"tax"
-‐32%
+10%
Norton-‐Griffiths
2012
20. Priority
Ac8ons:
v Improve
networking
and
partnership
building
for
climate
adapta<on
along
the
value
chain
by
strengthening
exis<ng
plaoorms
at
all
levels
and
explore
the
role
of
market
incen<ves
in
suppor<ng
such
ac<vi<es,
v Develop
new,
flexible
financial
products
to
support
climate-‐resilient
and
inclusive
agro-‐value
chains
through
capacity
building
and
innova<ve
public-‐private
partnerships,
v I n v e s t
i n
c l i m a t e -‐ r e s i l i e n t
infrastructures
such
as
roads,
irriga<on
systems,
storage
facili<es
and
telecommunica<ons
should
remain
a
top
priority
to
support
agro-‐value
chain
development
and
build
produc<ve
capaci<es
in
a
changing
climate.
CRCV
ini<a<ve
Value
chains:
a
case
of
climate-‐resilient
coffee
(2)
25. – Moving
from
sex
disaggregated
diagnos<c
research
towards
informing,
catalyzing
and
targe<ng
adapta<on
and
mi<ga<on
solu<ons
to
women
– Finding:
Gender
norms
must
be
addressed
to
achieve
the
UN
Sustainable
Development
Goals
Gender
and
inclusion
for
resilience
26. • Can
we
predict
what
makes
integrated
crop-‐livestock-‐tree
systems
scalable?
• How
can
we
incen<vize
the
adop<on
of
ICLTS
through
horizontal
and
ver<cal
scaling?
• What
are
the
metrics
we
need
to
characterize
system
proper<es
at
appropriate
scales?
• How
can
we
support
decision-‐makers
(at
all
relevant
scales)
in
making
be^er
decisions?
29. GHG
mi<ga<on
through
agroforestry
by
regions
Region
Annual
rate
2000-‐2010
2011-‐2030
(Mt
CO2/yr)
(Mt
CO2)
(Mt
CO2)
North
America
24.6
270
491
Central
America
10.1
111
201
South
America
157.3
1,730
3,145
Europe
7.2
79
144
N
Africa
+
W
Asia
2.7
29
53
Sub-‐Saharan
Africa
10.0
110
201
N
+
Central
Asia
-‐4.0
-‐44
-‐79
South
Asia
23.5
258
469
South-‐East
Asia
23.8
262
477
East
Asia
36.2
398
723
Oceania
19.2
211
384
Globe
262.8
2,891
5,256
%
Gt
CO2/yr
0
0.26
20
0.37
25
0.39
30
0.41
50
0.47
35. "The
landscape
approach
has
been
championed
by
organiza<ons
ac<ve
in
the
development
and
conserva<on
sectors
for
many
years,
though
the
concept
has
been
slow
to
migrate
into
mainstream
corporate
thinking.
Now
this
report
from
the
Landscape
for
People,
Food
and
Nature
Ini<a<ve,
sets
out
a
case
for
companies
to
think
about
their
business
in
landscape
terms."
-‐
José
Lopez,
Execu?ve
Vice
President,
Opera?ons,
Nestlé
S.A.
Connec<ng
commodi<es
to
landscapes
through
public-‐private-‐civic
partnerships
SBSTA
40,
6
June
2014
Gabrielle Kissinger
Lexeme Consulting
36. Agribusinesses
and
food
sector
response
to
sustainability
risks
from
field
to
landscape
Connec<ng
commodi<es
to
landscapes
through
public-‐private-‐civic
partnerships
SBSTA
40,
6
June
2014
Gabrielle Kissinger
Lexeme Consulting
44. INSTITUTIONAL
CAPACITY
AGROECOSYSTEM
ASSETS
Mi<ga<on
Economic
changes
Buffer
filter
Abundant
Limited
Fragile
Robust
Strong
Weak
External
drivers,
hasards
and
exposure
PATHWAY
Time
1
à
Time
2
SCENARIOS
A.
Different
driver
B.
Same
asset
Less
vulnerable
More
vulnerable
UNCERTAINTY
CLOUD
Indicator
-‐
AE
1
-‐
AE2
-‐
AE3
-‐
…
-‐
AEN
Indicator
-‐
A1
-‐
A2
-‐
A3
-‐
A4
-‐
…
-‐
AN
Indicator
-‐
I1
-‐
I2
-‐
I3
-‐
…
-‐
IN
Reduced
Risk
Increased
Risk
Based
on
Fraser
et
al,
2011
45. Agreement
on
goals/values
No
agreement
on
goals/values
High
uncertainty
Low
uncertainty
The
role
of
science
and
research
in
complex
systems
Straighoorward
design
Providing
arguments
Monitor
emerging
change
Collabora<ve
ac<on
research
Study
diversity
Experiment
with
mul<ple
op<ons
Extracted
from
Leeuwis,
2014
Complex
systems
thinking
46. Discovery,
tes<ng
and
implementa<on
of
mechanisms
across
scales
that
allow
for
adap<ve
management
and
adap<ve
governance
of
social-‐ecological
systems
essen<al
for
long-‐term
human
provisioning
Development
of
integrated
metrics
of
safe
space
that
are
prac<cal
and
meaningful
for
decision-‐making
by
relevant
communi<es
in
near
real
<me
Systema<c
gathering
and
integra<on
of
quality
data
and
informa<on
to
generate
knowledge
in
<me
frames
and
at
scales
relevant
for
decision-‐making
through
analy<cal
tools,
models
and
scenarios
Establishment
of
legi<mate
and
empowered
science
policy
dialogues
that
frame
post–disciplinary
science
agendas
on
local,
na<onal
and
interna<onal
scales
Key
areas
of
science
innova<on
Neufeldt
et
al
2013,
Agriculture
and
Food
Security
47. Research
for
the
advancement
of
integrated
crop-‐livestock-‐tree
systems
will
need
to
become
more
integrated,
post-‐disciplinary
and
systems
oriented